It's ambiguous but my money is on even excess deaths underestimating COVID mortality. There are some extra deaths from health care avoidance/delay, but also lower deaths from other infectious diseases being down, the economy being depressed, people staying home etc.
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Can't control, but can make inferences from the key stylised facts of age/sex/location distribution. In UK, high-ish correlation of non C19 excess with C29 excess by geography, very low with sex (non C19 excess is exactly like base, not like C19), and variable by age.
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Age distribution shows reduction in the ages where fatalities are largely due to accidents/violence (5-25) and increase in in other groups. Overall suggests non C19 excess is not due to C19, but due to hospital infra overstretch/ people avoiding necessary emergency treatment.
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Don’t control for it. The real number of deaths caused by Covid should also include indirect deaths, just like when we track deaths from natural disasters we include people who have heart attacks or accidents because they were fleeing.
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My understanding is that those deaths are included in the count of annual flu deaths. By that standard it’s reasonable to include them in COVID excess mortality, though that might not give the number you’re looking for.
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in emerging countries you get lower deaths from accidents, suicides, murders, driving.... hard to believe “avoiding treatment” is causing nore deaths
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There's also stuff like extra opioid deaths (people using alone), but fewer road and sports accidents, drownings, etc.. I think it's impossible ... and inherently political. We'll never know *the* exact count.
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Excess mortality from postponed care should be independent of covid mortality reporting quality, so that would be one control
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One would expect such effects to have a delay, probably not significant yet.
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Yep. They won’t occur in the same timeframe. May need a minor adjustment as the pandemic moves into later waves
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