Weird how people are letting their guard down. My guard level is steadily trending higher. Risk seems to be increasing steadily rather than decreasing to me.
Map people: “things must be getting better because they’re easing restrictions, so I can let down my guard”
Territory people: “err basically nothing has changed, so easing restrictions means we’re just accepting higher shared risk which means I must mitigate personal risk more”
Developments: we now know several things don’t work, but haven’t found anything that does. Food security plummeting by the day. Infrastructure accidents in the developing world already. Famine beginning to loom in Africa. Fiscal support already at limit.
War zones trying to return to “normal” war with no pandemic proofing.
Throw in your locusts and murder hornets for some color.
Basically, no good news. We bought time, achieved almost nothing with it beyond a bit of curve flattening.
And the curve flattening is partly just spike shifting in most overloaded parts of the world.
Tldr: if you’re letting your guard down you’re an idiot. Unless you have a mansion in Idaho, or better still on the moon, staffed by robots, your risk has gone up not down. Probably 3x.
My hard landing asymptote is: design your survival-level lifestyle within a 20-mile radius plus Amazon. Assume that nothing except money can travel longer distances easily. And assume that money will be worth less and less.
Right now the poorest under-the-API types are being thrown under the bus. Expect the shit level line to slowly rise and that you will be thrown under the bus too when it rises to your class level. Maybe not via higher Covid risk, but other risks like hunger or destitution
Never thought I’d live through this level of breakdown, but I’m now making post-money plans, as in when money is not the primary form of risk insurance needed. There’s going to be a pretty bad rice shock within the year I think, which will make the meat crisis look like a joke.
mega thread somewhere... big exporters like india, thailand and vietnam are shutting down exports, and net importers like africa and others are having both supply trouble and in-country logistics trouble