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Seems unsupported by the evidence. See: Taiwan & South Korea, who've controlled this with some of the world's least restrictive measures, and on the other side, Russia & Iran. It's a general incompetence tax if anything.
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Germany seems to be doing ok, and obviously New Zealand and Aus as well. It seems likely there was significant undetected spread very early in France, Italy, and Spain (due to more travel) that doomed those countries relative to Eastern Europe. Still seems more about competence.
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