Weird how people are letting their guard down. My guard level is steadily trending higher. Risk seems to be increasing steadily rather than decreasing to me.
I think most counties are in a genuine eye of the storm, with legitimately less risk/day (than weeks ago) for at least another few days. My 500k county e.g. has found only ~18new_cases/day each of the last 14 days -- despite an evergrowing infection base.
That’s primary risk. Every other kind of risk is growing for everybody. The virus is just the closed-world zeroth-order game with known rules. Outer orders are increasingly getting worse — financial, economic, supply chain, trade, global security...
The civil unrest was already brewing strong into the NewYear. Now it’s getting nicer out so everyone will want to venture out. Big lag time in the indicators leaves no time for corrective actions