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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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      Weird how people are letting their guard down. My guard level is steadily trending higher. Risk seems to be increasing steadily rather than decreasing to me.

      26 replies 210 retweets 1,163 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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      Map people: “things must be getting better because they’re easing restrictions, so I can let down my guard” Territory people: “err basically nothing has changed, so easing restrictions means we’re just accepting higher shared risk which means I must mitigate personal risk more”

      7 replies 108 retweets 499 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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      Developments: we now know several things don’t work, but haven’t found anything that does. Food security plummeting by the day. Infrastructure accidents in the developing world already. Famine beginning to loom in Africa. Fiscal support already at limit.

      5 replies 19 retweets 150 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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      War zones trying to return to “normal” war with no pandemic proofing. Throw in your locusts and murder hornets for some color. Basically, no good news. We bought time, achieved almost nothing with it beyond a bit of curve flattening.

      6 replies 13 retweets 175 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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      And the curve flattening is partly just spike shifting in most overloaded parts of the world. Tldr: if you’re letting your guard down you’re an idiot. Unless you have a mansion in Idaho, or better still on the moon, staffed by robots, your risk has gone up not down. Probably 3x.

      5 replies 34 retweets 237 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao

      https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1259270527631257600?s=21 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Venkatesh Rao @vgr
      It’s a probability for me. “World ending” is at ~20% and rising for me. https://twitter.com/ehsaanehmad/status/1259269926403158016 …
      1 reply 2 retweets 48 likes
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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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      My hard landing asymptote is: design your survival-level lifestyle within a 20-mile radius plus Amazon. Assume that nothing except money can travel longer distances easily. And assume that money will be worth less and less.

      6 replies 15 retweets 117 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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      Right now the poorest under-the-API types are being thrown under the bus. Expect the shit level line to slowly rise and that you will be thrown under the bus too when it rises to your class level. Maybe not via higher Covid risk, but other risks like hunger or destitution

      2 replies 12 retweets 116 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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      Never thought I’d live through this level of breakdown, but I’m now making post-money plans, as in when money is not the primary form of risk insurance needed. There’s going to be a pretty bad rice shock within the year I think, which will make the meat crisis look like a joke.

      5:08 PM - 9 May 2020
      • 6 Retweets
      • 127 Likes
      • de_merindol Stumpy Michael McCarron David Shaw WoodIsGood The Crypto Dog📈 Joe Sondow Dipika josh T.
      4 replies 6 retweets 127 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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          We just hit Great Depression levels of unemployment... except this is way worse because that was *merely* a financial crisis. There wasn’t a pandemic doing the rounds and half the civilizational machine in a dangerous unplanned shutdown mode it wasn’t actually designed for.

          1 reply 11 retweets 104 likes
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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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          pic.twitter.com/dnK4pRBnxk

          1 reply 2 retweets 23 likes
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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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          pic.twitter.com/rBMEYRZWcM

          1 reply 2 retweets 22 likes
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        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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          pic.twitter.com/uPPlfkcq1g

          1 reply 2 retweets 21 likes
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        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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          I suspect a lot of the people who are optimistic right now believe the laissez faire part of the economy is much bigger than it is, and don’t realize how much bigger the planned part is. By which I mean both state capacity and the innards of large corporations.

          2 replies 15 retweets 120 likes
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        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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          This planned part is not some sort of magical self-healing, self-regulating emergent stochastic magic show orchestrated by money. It is more like a precisely engineered machine that runs in somewhat deterministic ways via explicit coordination.

          1 reply 7 retweets 100 likes
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        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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          And it is MUCH bigger.... “laissez faire was planned, planning was not” — Polyani. We’re about to see the biggest natural experiment in actually free markets. A sample of the world free marketers want, as regulatory reins fail.

          3 replies 9 retweets 88 likes
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        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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          Find your generalized green zone now. Not as in virus-free, but as in resilient — high local basic sustainability — global logistics connectivity — varied, digitalized local economy — good healthcare — good law and order — medium density — communitarian spirit — blue >> red

          13 replies 11 retweets 136 likes
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        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr May 9
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao

          Explaining my strong blue >> red bias https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1259282761564606464?s=21 …https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1259282761564606464 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Venkatesh Rao @vgr
          Replying to @krrishd
          People whose first instinct is to pitch in and help rather than pull out gun and shoot? No contest. Especially if you’re a visible minority.
          7 replies 6 retweets 59 likes
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        11. End of conversation
        1. Death will not release you‏ @7leaguebootdisk May 9
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          Replying to @vgr

          I'd assumed that western countries can just buy food, we eat less meat perhaps, but we still eat. The developing world though... Arab Spring was because food prices shot up.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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