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Replying to and
I have participated in a few and done a bunch of modeling/simulation things that resemble scenario exercises structurally in but I haven’t actually designed/run scenario exercises myself. I’m more interested in the math/logic foundations of counterfactual/modal methods
Replying to and
I’ve been thinking about this quite a bit and have concluded that classical scenario methods are not viable in the short term right now because they are effectively variational/perturbation analysis methods to study the adjacent possible around a nominal. We lack a nominal now.
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Replying to and
Which makes sense because variational/perturbation methods are typically used for tractability. A high-dimensional and intractable primary problem can yield a tractable low-dimensional variational problem with almost no loss if the nominal reference trajectory (scenario) is good