I think the green lumber parable illustrates why I think Taleb is my evil twin. My takeaway from it is that the actual meaning of green lumber is important and therefore the trading world is bullshit. His lesson seems to be: what lets you trade it well is what’s important.
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I kinda don’t give a shit that some boring dude lacking in the basic curiosity to learn what he was trading made a pile of money. It’s a kind of deadness.
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We’re all going to die eventually anyway. Life is the ultimate guaranteed 100% losing trade. Why not enrich the journey by paying attention to the universe you’re in while you’re passing through it?
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You’re giving him the speculative benefit of doubt on his ends, while discounting the real damage of his means: introducing speculative volatility into the lumber market based on fundamental ignorance about it. He broke an egg fir sure. He *may* make an omelette.
Okay I'm not sure where this conclusion comes from. Arbitraging price discrepancies in some economic sector doesn't magically tarnish the purity of some economic eden in which all prices were based on "the real world".
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