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I think the green lumber parable illustrates why I think Taleb is my evil twin. My takeaway from it is that the actual meaning of green lumber is important and therefore the trading world is bullshit. His lesson seems to be: what lets you trade it well is what’s important.
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Only works if you're right. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing since it progresses non-linearly. (Some) people get dumber with first details like what green means. Bootstrapped abstract cargo cult of existence via pompous narration more dead than mediocre/humble $$$-making.
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There’s nothing to “work” here. It’s not about dumb or smart. The opposite of green lumber dude is not pompous narrative guy. It’s not a trader at all. The market is not the world.
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His lessons are pragmatic. But taken to its logical conclusion, I feel his framework glorifies a low curiosity of how the world works, and a defeatist attitude that we can’t change anything which is “Lindy”.
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You’re giving him the speculative benefit of doubt on his ends, while discounting the real damage of his means: introducing speculative volatility into the lumber market based on fundamental ignorance about it. He broke an egg fir sure. He *may* make an omelette.
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“Why” you are in the game decides what is important. If you are in the game to learn about green lumber, trading is the last place you should be. If you are there to make money, why the lumber is green is irrelevant.
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I don’t think Taleb is saying that learning about the nature of green lumber is pointless in absolute terms. I think he’s saying that learning about the nature of green lumber is pointless *if you’re trying to make money* It’s all about what you’re optimizing for.