I think the green lumber parable illustrates why I think Taleb is my evil twin. My takeaway from it is that the actual meaning of green lumber is important and therefore the trading world is bullshit. His lesson seems to be: what lets you trade it well is what’s important.
-
-
Only works if you're right. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing since it progresses non-linearly. (Some) people get dumber with first details like what green means. Bootstrapped abstract cargo cult of existence via pompous narration more dead than mediocre/humble $$$-making.
-
There’s nothing to “work” here. It’s not about dumb or smart. The opposite of green lumber dude is not pompous narrative guy. It’s not a trader at all. The market is not the world.
- 4 more replies
New conversation -
-
-
Because the pile he earned is a means to an end. All cash is. What is his end? Doesn't necessarily have to be as boring as the yacht guy's. Maybe the green lumber trader went on to build a top secret evil labortory. More cash means optionality and freedom, pretty much always.
-
You’re giving him the speculative benefit of doubt on his ends, while discounting the real damage of his means: introducing speculative volatility into the lumber market based on fundamental ignorance about it. He broke an egg fir sure. He *may* make an omelette.
- 2 more replies
New conversation -
-
-
His lessons are pragmatic. But taken to its logical conclusion, I feel his framework glorifies a low curiosity of how the world works, and a defeatist attitude that we can’t change anything which is “Lindy”.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
“Why” you are in the game decides what is important. If you are in the game to learn about green lumber, trading is the last place you should be. If you are there to make money, why the lumber is green is irrelevant.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Ettinger, Kurzweil,
@aubreydegrey don't think it's necessary. ...Just likely, given the idiocy with which mankind is "governed."Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
A Confucian point of view, no?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
I don’t think Taleb is saying that learning about the nature of green lumber is pointless in absolute terms. I think he’s saying that learning about the nature of green lumber is pointless *if you’re trying to make money* It’s all about what you’re optimizing for.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
That's a good point for adopting 12yo kids instead of having your own. After all they're already life bagholders
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.