Here’s the thing — the later the reopen, the more wealth will be destroyed to save the machine. Politically this means one of two things: socialism (via nationalization of financially distressed assets) or state collapse (via public bankruptcy to bail out wealth). Choose.
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Solve for the country/systems you have, not the one you wish you had. You can ignore constraints to make bad comparisons to blame people you hate, but those constraints don’t actually go away. Potatoes still need trucking. The US still has an electoral college. Deal with it.
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It is easy to work yourself up into a self-righteous lather and feel like you’re a better person than the Bad People who are preventing the Obvious Solution that way. You might even be right about them being bad if not about how the systems work. But it doesn’t solve problems.
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Interesting that test-and-trace people keep trying to tell me it’s not about measurement but containment. Uh huh. There’s a reason nobody flags that last bit, as in test-trace-and-quarantine. The political difficulty goes up 10x for that. So we pretend the easy part is it.
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There is very little political capacity to do large-scale selective quarantine enforcement in the west. Take your pick: Group quarantine Ankle monitors Trust patriotic self-isolation Each breaks. Ship has sailed anyway I think.
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I did a thread about this. We’ll have it eventually but not soon enough for this time.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1249380932152258560?s=21 …
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Next question I’m thinking about. Thought experiment— if the government gave up and said “do whatever, we give up, reopen at will...” What would people and businesses actually do? What is the natural reopening pattern absent rule of law?
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End of conversation
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