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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 30
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      Macabre thing about covid is that the same demographics are at highest risk whether you open up slowly or quickly — the poor and unhealthy. Only question is whether they die of covid or destitution+desperation. If you try to minimize deaths, I think they end up being balanced?pic.twitter.com/wFkd0VdfmH

      29 replies 89 retweets 260 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 30
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      The perverse incentive: every non-minimal death rate has TWO solution points — a slow-reopen one and a fast-reopen one, and the fast-reopen has less GDP loss per death. Moral hazard here is if you start with an “acceptable” body count you’ll want to err on side of fast reopen

      5 replies 5 retweets 38 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 30
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      Now, since these curves are obviously hard to estimate with any degree of confidence, most people will in practice go for “acceptable body count” thinking. The more surveillance tech you have the better you can estimate these curves and the smaller the gap between p11 and p12.

      1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 30
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      This creates a second moral hazard: if you want a fast reopen, you *don’t* want a lot of test-and-trace surveillance because of the chances the answer will be too far out past your economic preference. Blindness helps the fast-reopen case so you’ll make that a moral cause.

      2 replies 2 retweets 24 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 30
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      You’ll derp about courage and grit (of course you will, because you’re likely in a low-risk group) and make a civil liberties anti-tracking case for fast reopen *without* surveillance. Surprise surprise that’s exactly what the economy-first types tend to do.

      2 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 30
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      But they’re not entirely wrong, because there’s a second factor here... the economic loss curve is also uncertain and there’s a genuine case for fear that it might unravel catastrophically beyond a point.

      2 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 30
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      Consider this speculative curve, capturing that fear... that past a point the economic breakdown is apocalyptic and irrecoverablepic.twitter.com/BJry7b7uFc

      2 replies 2 retweets 20 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 30
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      I won’t attempt to sketch the compound speculation but there are 2 cases here: A: the minimum death point lies before the knee of the runaway economic collapse curve B: the minimum death point lies after the knee of the runaway economic collapse curve B is a fake case, why?

      2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 30
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      So the leap of faith being made by the test-and-trace fetishists is that the minimum death point will be well before the economic collapse knee and we’ll be spared the hard choice of faster/slower reopening because perfect surveillance will give us the “right” answer.

      9:20 PM - 30 Apr 2020
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      • gomezoscar Arlyn Culwick https://thisrentaldoesnotexist.com/ Adewale Oshineye
      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
        1. NOLAN GRAY‏ @nolangray_ Apr 30
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          Replying to @vgr

          TestTrace vs TestIsolate / Chemtrails vs Contrails

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Tentatively returning to this hellsite‏ @pneumatik Apr 30
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          Replying to @vgr

          Test-and-trace is about identifying the small fraction of the population that actually is contagious and isolating only them. Everyone goes back to their normal life in a normal economy. The only reason we have to shut down everything is because we don’t know who has it now.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Tentatively returning to this hellsite‏ @pneumatik Apr 30
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          Replying to @pneumatik @vgr

          If we can actually know who has it and isolate them then in one month our total case numbers go way down. At that point having the feds support whoever has it and has to isolate for weeks is cheap.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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