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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

This is my conversational account. For my work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 27
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    Soooo.... just realized I hold a very unpopular opinion. Reopening economy vs. saving lives is NOT a false choice, but a real one. The first instinct idea is correct. Reason: building out test-and-trace is NOT free in time/money, nor is it guaranteed 100% to work.

    1:37 PM - 27 Apr 2020
    • 2 Retweets
    • 40 Likes
    • Eduardo Ferraciolli Gluckstadt Storage Gabriel Curried Apotheosis Dr. Loh divraj ostensibly nil Sachin Benny Raj Balakrishnan
    9 replies 2 retweets 40 likes
      1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 27
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        Not guaranteed to work as in, on the ground, not the theory. Deploying such huge infrastructure in crisis mode is almost guaranteed to run into big, deep execution snafus and then we end up stumbling into reopening anyway under desperation.

        2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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      2. christina dunbar hyphen hester‏ @scrivenix Apr 27
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        Replying to @vgr

        maybe i'm naive/missing your thinking here, but i found this column to be a good discussion, in particular this quote: “The economy is just us,” said Betsey Stevenson, an economics professor at the University of Michigan.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/26/opinion/coronavirus-economy-reopen.html …

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 27
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        Replying to @scrivenix

        I'm making a very trivial point. We'll be forced to make the choice, based on short term economic stresses, so the fact that in the long term they are a false choice doesn't affect the fact that in the short term it's a real choice...

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. Dan listens to the world changing‏ @danlistensto Apr 27
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        Replying to @vgr

        the two "popular" versions of this opinion diverge in polarized opposition. deliberate straw-manning now: the left popular version is ONLY SAVE LIVES with no plan or desire to address economic problems. the right popular version is ONLY SAVE THE ECONOMY at the cost of lives.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Dan listens to the world changing‏ @danlistensto Apr 27
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        Replying to @danlistensto @vgr

        I think both of these are the result of political manipulation and partisan messaging in echo chamber media dynamics. the context collapse and stripping of nuance or of competing needs is typical of American discourse. it's astonishingly hard to find realistic discussion.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. vaedermacher‏ @vaedermacher Apr 27
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        Replying to @vgr

        I think there’s merit to the fact that the epidemics are geographically localised so shutting down an entire country to the same extent makes it harder to prepare for subsequent waves / spread

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Convolver  🗯‏ @Convolver Apr 27
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        Replying to @vaedermacher @vgr

        The problem with that is that you have to lock down travel between areas, either by quarantine or track-and-trace in non-outbreak areas, which is hard to scale unless you have authoritarian travel controls already in place.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Gregory Herczeg‏ @GregHerczeg Apr 27
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        Replying to @vgr

        I think that this is very country-dependent. With a strict lockdown followed by intense Test/Trace/Isolate, China has saved lives and opened the economy, likely much more robustly than #flattenthecurve countries can. That requires infringements on privacy, unacceptable to US.

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      1. Jeff‏ @jeffdeecee Apr 27
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        Replying to @vgr

        Pareto reopening imo

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      1. Sijan Khan‏ @sijank524 Apr 27
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        Replying to @vgr

        It’s a real choice because much of the world acted too slowly, and many societies (not the government) don’t have the appetite to do what is necessary to cut the spread quickly. We’re too complacent

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