I’m now Short China, but long Hardened Globalization. Which means I guess I’m betting on a significant Desinification of globalization,
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No critical input sole-sourced from China or its vassal states, no goods/services >50% China-sourced
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So a quick transition: end of cheap mass produced Chinese goods in the local Walmart? Replaced by not -so-cheap mass produced goods elsewhere? Or a change in consumption patterns towards more expensive near sourced alternatives?
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Not quick. Slow unwinding of dependence through alts, dematerialization, automation, commodities contention
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