There are 4 scenarios with sufficient weight of likelihood to be worth planning for I think: 1. Hardened neoliberalism 2. Partial deglobalization 3. Permadistanced world 4. Collapse (defined as say 25-30% economic shrinkage and depopulation over the next 2 decades)
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Replying to @vgr
I feel like 1+2 would be in tension with each other. Do you count de-urbanization as part of 3?
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Replying to @pixlpa
Yeah, 1+2 in tension, but could still work... globalization remains for lots of commodities, but recedes to nationalism for higher value-added goods... and high robotization will drive deglobalization Deurbanization could be part of either 3 or 4
2:14 PM - 23 Apr 2020
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