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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 23
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      There are 4 scenarios with sufficient weight of likelihood to be worth planning for I think: 1. Hardened neoliberalism 2. Partial deglobalization 3. Permadistanced world 4. Collapse (defined as say 25-30% economic shrinkage and depopulation over the next 2 decades)

      19 replies 22 retweets 101 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 23
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      The 4th one people might argue... there's prima facie no reason to expect a worse outcome than Spanish Flu, but on a double take (secunda facie?), there's a risk present here that wasn't present in 1917-19: the sheer complexity of modern society

      3 replies 2 retweets 29 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 23
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      For eg. In 1920, the rural population of the US was about 49%, the first time it fell below 50%. Today it is 24% (which is an overestimate of those shielded from urbanism risks because most of those don't actually live on farms)

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 23
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      One way to collapse level (which would take a shit ton of modeling) is to look at the highest tech sophistication level the core work behavior in the sector requires. Like pilots only have jobs if there are planes flying around. Collapse = lower GDP % at higher complexity levels

      1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
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    5. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Apr 23
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      Replying to @vgr

      Did I tell you about my paper on the "Fragile World Hypothesis" that was just (re)submitted to Futures?pic.twitter.com/L5yCdl0PMO

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 23
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      Replying to @davidmanheim

      no, interesting :)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 23
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      Replying to @vgr @davidmanheim

      Send me pdf?

      12:48 PM - 23 Apr 2020
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      • David Manheim
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