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There are 4 scenarios with sufficient weight of likelihood to be worth planning for I think: 1. Hardened neoliberalism 2. Partial deglobalization 3. Permadistanced world 4. Collapse (defined as say 25-30% economic shrinkage and depopulation over the next 2 decades)
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The 4th one people might argue... there's prima facie no reason to expect a worse outcome than Spanish Flu, but on a double take (secunda facie?), there's a risk present here that wasn't present in 1917-19: the sheer complexity of modern society
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For eg. In 1920, the rural population of the US was about 49%, the first time it fell below 50%. Today it is 24% (which is an overestimate of those shielded from urbanism risks because most of those don't actually live on farms)
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One way to collapse level (which would take a shit ton of modeling) is to look at the highest tech sophistication level the core work behavior in the sector requires. Like pilots only have jobs if there are planes flying around. Collapse = lower GDP % at higher complexity levels
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