There are 4 scenarios with sufficient weight of likelihood to be worth planning for I think: 1. Hardened neoliberalism 2. Partial deglobalization 3. Permadistanced world 4. Collapse (defined as say 25-30% economic shrinkage and depopulation over the next 2 decades)
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For eg. In 1920, the rural population of the US was about 49%, the first time it fell below 50%. Today it is 24% (which is an overestimate of those shielded from urbanism risks because most of those don't actually live on farms)
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One way to collapse level (which would take a shit ton of modeling) is to look at the highest tech sophistication level the core work behavior in the sector requires. Like pilots only have jobs if there are planes flying around. Collapse = lower GDP % at higher complexity levels
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it seemed obvious to me from the start that this was both a worse virus and it was a far worst situation to innovate our of, with our air travel and globally connected economy only our capacity to innovate is better, but this is largely theoretical because of dumbasses in charge
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we have to route around it
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Here's a way to change the US's demographics: instead of making more babies, kill off the elderly!
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More sick than elderly it now appears... comorbidities and obesity a bigger factor than age afaict
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