This is too hard to model out in any detail, but I suspect 1/3 - 1/2 of people going back to work/school every day with masks on would get 80% of the reboot done with barely noticeable marginal increase in healthcare burden.
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It is kinda dumb that we haven’t explored low-tech smart distancing options in any detail. It’s either brute force total lockdown or geewhiz blockchain on phones crypto health surveillance stuff.
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It’s also dumb that we’re letting the most economically backward states with smallest, most primitive economies own the open-the-economy case, while the economies with the most to lose are kinda not putting enough brrrrainpower on the problem.
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I’m kinda glad Trump balked at actually backing Kemp’s play. Now it’s at least no longer a signal of Trumpism to want rapid reopening. Kemp’s particular model was dumb but there’s got to be fast reopen playbooks that can start today. This phase 1-phase 2 thing is trench warfare.
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I think the reason I weight the economic problem more than most is that I suspect a recovery pathway, if this goes too deep, will be even harder to create than a vaccine. Especially in the developing world.
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Or to put it bluntly, if we wait to hit the cause-of-death indifference curve (1 covid death = 1 death by starvation = financial-distress suicide seems to be subconscious moral trolley calculus), the economy will be irrecoverable and political stability will unravel entirely.
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Replying to @vgr
i also think the details of true economic collapse are harder to imagine and easier to dismiss for most right now - people compare to '08 which wasnt really that bad. virus outcomes are unprecedented but easier to grasp.
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Grapes of Wrath needs a revival
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