This is too hard to model out in any detail, but I suspect 1/3 - 1/2 of people going back to work/school every day with masks on would get 80% of the reboot done with barely noticeable marginal increase in healthcare burden.
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How likely do you think that people will wear masks? Actually follow prevention protocols?
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If it’s a condition of returning to work, most will. It’s just like a drivers license. Most drivers have one.
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You don’t need perfect compliance, just high enough. Drunken and beltless driving is low enough we’ve accepted the equilibrium costs of noncompliance and enforcement.
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My point us with low-tech smart distancing you won’t have such contagion. Like still ban large gatherings and such, avoid superspreader cases, triage the damage from noncompliance.
This is EXACTLY what's happening in Korea and life has returned to some form of normalcy - we wear masks, go to school/work but bars/clubs/gathering places are closed, large gatherings/festivals have been defunded & cancelled...now all we're worried about is the global economy
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