This is too hard to model out in any detail, but I suspect 1/3 - 1/2 of people going back to work/school every day with masks on would get 80% of the reboot done with barely noticeable marginal increase in healthcare burden.
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How likely do you think that people will wear masks? Actually follow prevention protocols?
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If it’s a condition of returning to work, most will. It’s just like a drivers license. Most drivers have one.
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You don’t need perfect compliance, just high enough. Drunken and beltless driving is low enough we’ve accepted the equilibrium costs of noncompliance and enforcement.
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My point us with low-tech smart distancing you won’t have such contagion. Like still ban large gatherings and such, avoid superspreader cases, triage the damage from noncompliance.
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