This is too hard to model out in any detail, but I suspect 1/3 - 1/2 of people going back to work/school every day with masks on would get 80% of the reboot done with barely noticeable marginal increase in healthcare burden.
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I’m kinda glad Trump balked at actually backing Kemp’s play. Now it’s at least no longer a signal of Trumpism to want rapid reopening. Kemp’s particular model was dumb but there’s got to be fast reopen playbooks that can start today. This phase 1-phase 2 thing is trench warfare.
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I think the reason I weight the economic problem more than most is that I suspect a recovery pathway, if this goes too deep, will be even harder to create than a vaccine. Especially in the developing world.
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Or to put it bluntly, if we wait to hit the cause-of-death indifference curve (1 covid death = 1 death by starvation = financial-distress suicide seems to be subconscious moral trolley calculus), the economy will be irrecoverable and political stability will unravel entirely.
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“do you know what amazes me more than all else? The impotence of force to organize anything.” - Napoleon
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I think you're underestimating how wide and deep the political / institutional rot is.
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eg New York: https://twitter.com/MarketUrbanism/status/1253142548178251776 … We're doing stay at home because there's no state capacity for anything else. Not PPE, nor testing at the scale needed, and forget tracing.
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could be astute if you believe that: 1) early re-opening will cause net deaths and net productivity loss 2) public failure of early reopening is the only way to achieve popular support for actual optimal policy
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from that POV, a few weeks of disease resurgence in small economy state(s) is the minimum viable sacrifice necessary to achieve The Greater Good™
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