This is too hard to model out in any detail, but I suspect 1/3 - 1/2 of people going back to work/school every day with masks on would get 80% of the reboot done with barely noticeable marginal increase in healthcare burden.
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It’s also dumb that we’re letting the most economically backward states with smallest, most primitive economies own the open-the-economy case, while the economies with the most to lose are kinda not putting enough brrrrainpower on the problem.
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I’m kinda glad Trump balked at actually backing Kemp’s play. Now it’s at least no longer a signal of Trumpism to want rapid reopening. Kemp’s particular model was dumb but there’s got to be fast reopen playbooks that can start today. This phase 1-phase 2 thing is trench warfare.
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I think the reason I weight the economic problem more than most is that I suspect a recovery pathway, if this goes too deep, will be even harder to create than a vaccine. Especially in the developing world.
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Or to put it bluntly, if we wait to hit the cause-of-death indifference curve (1 covid death = 1 death by starvation = financial-distress suicide seems to be subconscious moral trolley calculus), the economy will be irrecoverable and political stability will unravel entirely.
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What’s “low-tech smart distancing”?
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Masks, alternate desks empty...
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We'll be forced into it within a few weeks, so we'll find out. I agree with you
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All we need is strong mask laws and norms to enforce social distancing
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I think the gun protestors are showing is the third way. It looks dumb on the surface, but if we all were enlightened we would see that being outside, breathing fresh air, is all the vaccines we need (parody, maybe?)
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Nope, that’s dumb. Fresh air is meaningless medievalism. Still need distancing and stuff.
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