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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 17
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Businessweek

      Small business owners whose lives have been permanently upended are going to be a whole new political faction around the world. Doctors and nurses are at least getting tagged heroes and will likely still have jobs even if hospitals end up bankrupt. But this group will be...angry.https://twitter.com/BW/status/1251179665735266305 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      BusinessweekVerified account @BW
      Wuhan's 11 million people are free to dine out. But they aren't https://trib.al/YFE4ZfQ 
      6 replies 36 retweets 154 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 17
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      Restaurateur Spring like Arab Spring. Many will go from moderately wealthy to bankrupt and working min-wage jobs in warehouses or as uber drivers, waiting for robots to take those jobs. The restaurant belt today is like the rust belt in the 80s. A political time bomb being primed

      4 replies 13 retweets 49 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 17
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      I’m reminded of stories I was reading before this hit, of cab drivers in debt bondage due to paying too much for medallions to loan sharks, just before that collapsed. This is like that wave but way bigger. Expect a wave of economic suicides.https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/23/nyregion/nyc-taxi-suicides.html …

      1 reply 6 retweets 26 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 17
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      There’s not going to be enough money printer go brr money. Many will turn to loan sharks and scammers in a desperate attempt to salvage their life and buy time to last through the recovery. In the process they’ll dig themselves into a bigger hole that will eventually claim them.

      3 replies 6 retweets 33 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 17
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      Every life saved now is going to cost a few lives ruined. The human cost of this effort is going to be *very* unevenly distributed. Basically restaurateurs (and the class of businesses they represent) are destroying themselves to save lives, mostly disadvantaged ones.

      3 replies 8 retweets 43 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 17
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      The free-riding groups of society are *hoping* that sacrificers will just accept their fates, content to suffer for their enforced altruism. Not gonna happen. They will (correctly) view Covid19 balance sheet as deeply unfair, and demand restitution from relatively unscathed ones.

      2 replies 7 retweets 40 likes
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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 17
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      At the moment much of the push to reopen the economy is coming from the protected wealthy who merely want their net worth back. The truly economically afflicted class hasn’t even activated yet. When they do, it will get actually ugly.

      1 reply 15 retweets 60 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 17
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      This can’t be avoided. For completely arbitrary reasons, no other class can make the sacrifice. They have to be the ones to front the sacrificial wealth here. The best that can be done is to try and socialize their costs 100% later. Easier said than done.

      2 replies 2 retweets 20 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 17
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      This is the first battle: restaurants fighting insurance companies over whether shutdowns are covered by business interruption insurance. I suspect this will go to court and be decided in favor of the insurance companies. They have better lawyers.https://chicago.eater.com/2020/4/15/21221492/maillard-tavern-business-interruption-insurance-industry-covid-19-losses …

      9:07 PM - 17 Apr 2020
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      • 27 Likes
      • Corn Woman 🌽 U.S.O.U.S. I_was_a_cat Louis-Kenzo jimmy hsu 🚀 Jason Sage Gibbons portalnyc David McDougall
      6 replies 5 retweets 27 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Pasayten‏ @Oneevol Apr 17
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          Replying to @vgr

          Something I've been thinking about is how challenged this group will be to channel their anger. The political class is largely captured by the elites, and the elites themselves are so far removed.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Pasayten‏ @Oneevol Apr 17
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          Replying to @Oneevol @vgr

          Gone are the days of storming the castle or the Versailles. Do they take it out on the accessible but wrong targets or resign themselves to bitterness and hopelessness.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Danger & Cuddlekins‏ @Chiliandgarlic Apr 17
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          Replying to @vgr

          You'd be surprised how bad they are. What they do have on their side, usually, is "better" law.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. Uchuu Senkan Yamato‏ @rlcarr Apr 17
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          Replying to @vgr

          If the policies have specific language excluding pandemics (which apparently many do after 2009), how can it *not* be decided in favor of the insurance companies?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Robot Bastard!‏ @Robot_Bastard Apr 20
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          Replying to @rlcarr @vgr

          Because the assumption allowing that language was that the government would step in to help in the event of some societal-level disaster. If the government is demonstrably unable (or unwilling) to do that...

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Azad AF‏ @azadag Apr 18
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          Replying to @vgr

          kindling: shake shack *not franchised* got SBA $$$. Franchises another class/tier did.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Olaf Alex‏ @olaf_alex Apr 18
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          Replying to @vgr

          Smart and powerful thread.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Jane Nicholson‏ @nicholsonj Apr 18
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          Replying to @vgr

          Even for the insurance companies that lose, they will not end up paying out because they will end up bankrupt. There -has- to be something to help out restauranteurs and other retail small businesses. There are so many that ‘too big to fail’ applies collectively.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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