The Planet of the Apes scenario is not getting enough attention. Current priors:
Return to normal: 10%
New normal: 15%
Permaweird: 40%
Min 50y Dark Age: 15%
Mad Max: 10%
Nazis: 5%
Planet of Apes: 5%
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Replying to
How about:
"This pandemic blows over, the world economy snaps back and when the next pandemic ('The Big One') threatens in a few years, ppl refuse to take it seriously:
'It can't possibly be as bad as 2020.'"
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Apes get infected with COVID-19, too, so maybe not Planet of the Apes after all.
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