Conversation

Replying to
To a first approximation it’s a dead loss. If you see 50% demand shortfall on a 100k monthly revenue for 3 months, and say your open falls from 50k to 25k, and capex stays same (assuming no debt relief/restructuring), you’ve basically lost 75k income for the year, period
1
15
That’s off gross margin. If your SAG is high enough, you’ll be in the red for a quarter. If your cost of capital us high enough, you might never catch up.
1
14
At most a lot of discretionary spending will see a small spike that will recover a small amount of lost ground. When aggregate demand return to pre-Covid levels it will be distributed very differently, a lot heavier on the lower part of Maslow pyramid.
1
32
Replying to
In the minds of people advocating for this: I don't think it's the demand that is "pent-up" I think it's the disposable income or available credit lines.
1
3
Replying to
Some of it is real. You will get people doing more things than they normally will when they really feel safe, from eating out more to concerts, sporting events and so on, but it won’t make up for the time they sat out completely.
2
4
Show replies
Replying to
I am curious how sticky quarantine habits will be. If wfh sticks, on-the-go coffee/breakfast and lunch joints never reach the same levels. Do people keep making sourdough? Do kids ever go back to school?
6