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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 15
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    I don’t think “pent-up demand” is a thing. You’re not going to go to Starbucks 3x until you catch up on missed coffee shop sessions. Demand doesn’t rollover for most things.

    7:12 PM - 15 Apr 2020
    • 21 Retweets
    • 206 Likes
    • Ed Marshall dark mutualist Ryan Murdock Internet Person Jacob Goff Emmanuel Chimezie Scott Nicholson Volta917 Simisola Oludare
    12 replies 21 retweets 206 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 15
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        To a first approximation it’s a dead loss. If you see 50% demand shortfall on a 100k monthly revenue for 3 months, and say your open falls from 50k to 25k, and capex stays same (assuming no debt relief/restructuring), you’ve basically lost 75k income for the year, period

        1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
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      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 15
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        That’s off gross margin. If your SAG is high enough, you’ll be in the red for a quarter. If your cost of capital us high enough, you might never catch up.

        1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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      4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 15
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        Don’t mind me, just building corporate death models for fun.

        1 reply 1 retweet 28 likes
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      5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 15
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        At most a lot of discretionary spending will see a small spike that will recover a small amount of lost ground. When aggregate demand return to pre-Covid levels it will be distributed very differently, a lot heavier on the lower part of Maslow pyramid.

        1 reply 0 retweets 33 likes
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      6. End of conversation
      1. Artem Litch‏ @ArtemLitch Apr 15
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        Replying to @vgr

        How do I use pent-up demand in a sentence

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. ben mosior‏ @HiredThought Apr 15
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        Replying to @vgr

        Latent demand, however...

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Rodrigo Camacho  🐈‏ @mixcocam Apr 15
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        Replying to @vgr

        In the minds of people advocating for this: I don't think it's the demand that is "pent-up" I think it's the disposable income or available credit lines.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 15
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        Replying to @mixcocam

        A lot of the disposable income doesn’t exist through the pandemic. The credit will almost entirely go towards minimal viable rescue.

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      4. End of conversation

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