Starting to think there’s an outside chance this could snowball to much worse than Spanish flu due to immune attack capability... we’ve been operating under baseless assumption that this can’t be worse than 1918, but that ignores fact that there’s more that can go wrong in 2020
Conversation
Replying to
Icymi
Quote Tweet
this just gets better and better scmp.com/news/china/soc
1
1
4
But in general... we have more ways things could go wrong as 2nd/3rd order effects
- nuclear war
- grid failure (1918 was barely electrified)
- lots more complex tech systems dependent on the knowledge of critical architects with weak succession planning
3
3
32
Replying to
Quote Tweet
this just gets better and better scmp.com/news/china/soc
1
1
Show replies
Replying to
The low immuno response from some that then leads to re-inflection, hints at vaccines will that takes longer for the medical community to develope.
2
Replying to
Who was under the baseless assumption that this couldn't be worse than 1918? Not me.
I'm just doing the math. Take any country, assume 80% infection. Assume 1-2% infected die.
What does that give you?
1





