I read this thing and understood maybe 25% of it, and I still don’t know what to expect a year out, which is the horizon where stuff like state of the dollar I think can impact me https://www.lynalden.com/global-dollar-short-squeeze/ …
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Basically, because so much of the demand for dollars is reserve-currency demand, it behaves weirdly where ordinary currencies would go straight into inflation or deflation in textbook ways. Dunno how to think clearly about it. I have near-zero direct currency risk in my income.
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Market is pretty unanimous on this. Inflation is possible but would be very unlikely to happen quickly. Losing reserve status could take a decade in a bad scenario
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We would need a pretty big boost in new industry with lots of inefficiency to get us OUT of deflation if projected fed spend happens. So much noise in FinTwit. You can be rich from finance and be a dunce about USD/deficit spending. Hilarious, really.
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My answer is whatever ends up making Trump look the best
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It's all about picking up what what the new primary keys will be baby
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