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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Abraham Thomas‏ @athomasq Apr 9
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      1/ THREAD: Time for another set of charts on the real-time economic and market impact of COVID-19, using proprietary data from @Quandl:

      2 replies 11 retweets 50 likes
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    2. Abraham Thomas‏ @athomasq Apr 9
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      2/ Let's start with e-commerce, where we have first-party data that captures transactions by category and not just by store.pic.twitter.com/qJgqoParNo

      2 replies 3 retweets 10 likes
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    3. Abraham Thomas‏ @athomasq Apr 9
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      3/ Last week I pointed out a category divergence: animals & pet supplies exploding, apparel & accessories collapsing. That divergence still exists, but has come back a lot from the extremes seen 2 weeks ago; perhaps an early sign of a return to normalcy?pic.twitter.com/l2GLUHZToM

      2 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
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    4. Abraham Thomas‏ @athomasq Apr 9
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      4/ Two other major e-commerce categories doing well are Electronics (+40% YOY) and Home & Garden (+31% YOY). This is almost certainly driven by the replacement of brick-and-mortar sales by online sales.pic.twitter.com/9yObWKErUy

      1 reply 2 retweets 12 likes
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    5. Abraham Thomas‏ @athomasq Apr 9
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      5/ Health & Beauty shows a lot of volatility week to week. We suspect sales of many health products have declined recently due to a lack of inventory, which in turn was perhaps driven by heavy purchasing in early March.pic.twitter.com/cXc7uJ7TxO

      2 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
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    6. Abraham Thomas‏ @athomasq Apr 9
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      6/ Smaller categories also show divergence. Toys & Games and Sporting Goods (think: exercise equipment!) are both up a lot year-over-year, while Luggage & Bags is down a lot -- both very intuitive observations.pic.twitter.com/YG9JYtzfzG

      1 reply 2 retweets 12 likes
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    7. Abraham Thomas‏ @athomasq Apr 9
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      7/ Overall e-commerce sales are recovering -- revenue in the last week of March 2020 was up 8% versus the corresponding week of 2019. This is not quite at the long-term trend line (expected ~20% YOY), but is nonetheless encouraging.pic.twitter.com/ibWVpwytfW

      1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
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    8. Abraham Thomas‏ @athomasq Apr 9
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      8/ There are also some interesting brand-level stories in e-commerce. For example, a number of cosmetic and luxury apparel names are doing better than I would have expected in a stay-at-home situation.

      3 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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    9. Abraham Thomas‏ @athomasq Apr 9
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      9/ Conversely, some makers of "pandemic essentials" are not doing as well as I would have thought, perhaps due to inventory issues: there's terrific demand but no supply and hence no sales.

      3 replies 2 retweets 5 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 9
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      Replying to @athomasq

      I don't buy this without further unbundling... there's luxury brands that have pivoted to making expensive hand sanitizer for example...

      9:59 AM - 9 Apr 2020
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      • Abraham Thomas
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Abraham Thomas‏ @athomasq Apr 9
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          Replying to @vgr

          Abraham Thomas Retweeted Maynard Handley

          Not sure that particular pivot is material in this particular channel and on this timeframe. (That could change of course). A more likely short-term explanation is that a lot of luxe brands are discounting very heavily, as @handleym99 points out:https://twitter.com/handleym99/status/1248313337630224384 …

          Abraham Thomas added,

          Maynard Handley @handleym99
          Replying to @athomasq
          I've seen those types of brands offering some extreme discounts, higher than I've ever seen before. Presumably at least some would-be buyers are taking advantage of this. Might as well hope that at least one day staying at home will end.
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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