Korea is an outlier due to much higher tech use for testing. So more tech can offset the disadvantage of more civil liberties.
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I think the way to combine cluster analysis and country analysis is some notion like mean-free-path. The right unit of analysis is neither the “country” nor the “outbreak cluster” but something else. Populations are not structureless Petri dishes. They gave a mobility topology.
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I’d buy the scale free argument if cities were large open spaces within walls where people all just stood still 3 feet apart and virus was jumping like a wildfire through a forest. No. We move, at varying speeds, through striations. The connectivity matters.
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Per capita is likely a terrible way to control for country effects, but country effects must exist and show up if modeled right. Wuhan and New York are both important economic hubs with a lot of travel for example.
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Maybe the right way to adjust is to Ignore country boundaries but segment graph of air travel and road travel connectivity bandwidth by a min-cut/max-flow logic, to define de facto “logistics countries”. This would make Seattle part of an Asian hub, NY part of an EU hub.
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Add an MLM attribution logic. Wuhan gets a fraction of the case count of all 1-degree removed air linked cities, regardless of country they’re in. Recursively back from newest hubs. Many big cities are better connected to international trading partners than national hinterland.
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Idea for a graph theory project: use the flight connectivity data and dates of travel restrictions to construct city-clusters that should be treated as “Covid19 nations”
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I hope I used "scale free" correctly, there. I think that's just from my own messy brain... Anyway, I don't see the contradiction. Vast majority of population has very short range interactions and long range movements largely ignore boarders. Be nice to see a connection graph.
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You're fine... others have used the phrase in that sense. It's not technically scale-free the way it's used in math I think, but more like context independent. As in, the statistics of an outbreak cluster depending only on the cluster's initial conditions and local conditions.
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Population density is more appropriate
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