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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

This is my conversational account. For my work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 8
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      Another possibility, if you believe the Chinese numbers, is that group quarantine has a huge effect, as opposed to self-isolation. In that case, you’d have to concede that the cost of liberal democratic civil liberties is a 10x-100x higher naive fatality rate.

      3 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 8
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      Korea is an outlier due to much higher tech use for testing. So more tech can offset the disadvantage of more civil liberties.

      8 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 8
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      Pick 2 of 3: civil liberties, low tech use, low fatality rate.

      2 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 8
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      People like to compare China and the west in very abstract, ideological terms, but really I think it boils down to the political feasibility of a *single* tactic: group quarantine. Everything else is pretty much legitimately available within all political systems.

      1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 8
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      It would be interesting to apply Dictator’s Handbook lens to this and determine actual extent of power. For example India is nominally a liberal democracy, but Modi probably has tactics available to him that democratically elected leaders generally don’t.

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 8
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted David Steven

      This is a good point. I wonder how internal connectivity of China compares to Europe. https://twitter.com/davidsteven/status/1248120867823005696?s=21 …https://twitter.com/davidsteven/status/1248120867823005696 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      David Steven @davidsteven
      Replying to @vgr
      Might look more reasonable if you ran your numbers province by province given size of country and concentration of infections.
      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 8
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Sijan Khan

      Another good point. https://twitter.com/sijank524/status/1248123379762298881?s=21 …https://twitter.com/sijank524/status/1248123379762298881 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Sijan Khan @sijank524
      Replying to @vgr
      Comparison of California vs New York has a lot to do with European travelers rather just the lockdown timing https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html#click=https://t.co/C9gYmve02h …
      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 8
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      One of the difficult questions is: assuming there really is a “cost of democracy” holding tech-level constant, should you be personally willing to pay it? Can’t honestly answer that without normalizing for your relative safety as a function of class/wealth.

      2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 8
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      I’m totally willing to accept a 10x-100x higher fatality rate (on a low base like 0.1- 1%) for higher civil liberties but then I’m not most at risk from poverty, crowding etc. Healthcare workers at least knowingly sign up for a risky profession.

      5 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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    10. John Gaffney‏ @jfpgaffney Apr 8
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      Replying to @vgr

      100X fatality rate on a 1% base? I don't think you mean that...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 8
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      Replying to @jfpgaffney

      Lol yeah. Meant 100x on 0.1, 10x on 1. So cap of say 10%

      11:21 PM - 8 Apr 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. John Gaffney‏ @jfpgaffney Apr 8
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          Replying to @vgr

          I figured. But the next thing is infection rate. If you have 50% infection and 10% fatality, that is 16.5 million people.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 8
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          Replying to @jfpgaffney

          Yeah, I realize that. My tradeoff is based on severity of civil liberties restrictions under question. 16.5m dead vs North Korea style government? It’s a toss-up. You give up civil liberties you open the doors to things worse than viruses.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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