Another possibility, if you believe the Chinese numbers, is that group quarantine has a huge effect, as opposed to self-isolation. In that case, you’d have to concede that the cost of liberal democratic civil liberties is a 10x-100x higher naive fatality rate.
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So... the case that per capita is meaningless because outbreaks are scale free. I’m not sure I buy this. You can’t just assume scale-free based on lack of correlation. A country is a logistics/travel connectivity cluster, not a meaningless fiction. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101?s=21 …https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101 …
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I think the way to combine cluster analysis and country analysis is some notion like mean-free-path. The right unit of analysis is neither the “country” nor the “outbreak cluster” but something else. Populations are not structureless Petri dishes. They gave a mobility topology.
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I’d buy the scale free argument if cities were large open spaces within walls where people all just stood still 3 feet apart and virus was jumping like a wildfire through a forest. No. We move, at varying speeds, through striations. The connectivity matters.
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Per capita is likely a terrible way to control for country effects, but country effects must exist and show up if modeled right. Wuhan and New York are both important economic hubs with a lot of travel for example.
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Maybe the right way to adjust is to Ignore country boundaries but segment graph of air travel and road travel connectivity bandwidth by a min-cut/max-flow logic, to define de facto “logistics countries”. This would make Seattle part of an Asian hub, NY part of an EU hub.
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Add an MLM attribution logic. Wuhan gets a fraction of the case count of all 1-degree removed air linked cities, regardless of country they’re in. Recursively back from newest hubs. Many big cities are better connected to international trading partners than national hinterland.
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Idea for a graph theory project: use the flight connectivity data and dates of travel restrictions to construct city-clusters that should be treated as “Covid19 nations”
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End of conversation
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I think making it voluntary and paying you a decent amount of money to go there is better and would work almost as well. That said, I think emergency powers are very broad on the state level. Not sure they couldn’t legally do that.
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I think “compulsory but well-compensated” is a reasonable standard, with protections built in for any harms determined after the fact to have been not associated with legitimate public health matters.
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