Conversation

Taking nominal fatality estimates as true, the naive per capita fatality rates, without adjusting for time or reporting accuracy, are Spain: 0.031% Italy: 0.029% France: 0.016% Iran: 0.0049% USA: 0.0045% Germany: 0.0027% China: 0.00024 I just don’t believe China numbers
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There’s an entire order of magnitude separating China and Germany. And another order of magnitude separating Germany and Spain. I don’t think this is explainable by political system. It’s underreporting + demographics + incidence of lifestyle diseases (diabetes etc)
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Also possibly something like the rumored off-target BCG vaccine effect. Though California vs New York suggest that even short differences in lockdown might have order of magnitude effects, so China data are probably not off by an order of magnitude. Maybe 2x-3x off.
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