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I don’t think you did, or you’d be in a much stronger position than your tweets suggest. It’s one thing to vaguely expect the apocalypse. It’s another thing to call it precisely enough to profit. If you didn’t pull that off, you were just as surprised as anyone.
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2/3 of the people in the world are always expecting end times and when bad things happen, feel validated. Only like 1% make meaningfully prescient moves that demonstrate actual insight. The rest is just ideological posturing with 20-20 hindsight.
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I didn't mean to suggest I predicted the pandemic, but my response throughout has been stoic. I just meant that the money printing to me looks like business as usual, and it is now more apparent to everyone. My approach has remained constant: make money while bitcoin is cheap.
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Ie you’re an expert on composites, who bought some cheap bitcoin and eats a lot of beef. Your “endgame” thoughts are on par with anyone else’s since coiner status is irrelevant. FWIW I do hold some crypto bought cheap. I don’t see it as relevant to my prognostications right now.
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Perhaps endgame was the wrong word. I meant the eventuality of hyperbitcoinization. If we are talking about taking action in the prediction of extreme events, I will have done so. Having crypto != holding as a bitcoin maximalist. (I consider any price under $1m very cheap)
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My only intended comment was that current events (including money go brrr meme) increase public awareness about the financial system. My claim is that there are n-steps to become a bitcoin maximalist, we are all heading there, and we just knocked out a few steps.
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I do not see observations surrounding bitcoin as building off of any expertise, but direct observation of the natural world. Some people simply have the right notches to reduce the steps needed to make those observations and become maximalists. I wouldn't call that expertise.
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That is what I’m reacting to. It is a wildly wrong word to use here. Hyperbotcoinization is a thesis YOU subscribe to, not the only possible one it’s possible to fit to events. If you don’t show awareness of that, I discount your views accordingly.
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2 ways to measure the success or failure of a systemic outcome a) how well/poorly it approximates the theoretical outcome of a model system you believe in b) how well/poorly it serves people who exist and must live with the outcome
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You’re a scientific guy, so I don’t need to give you the sermon about observations that are consistent with a model, vs validating it vs a model surviving a falsification test, vs surviving so many that it’s the only thesis reasonable people could hold
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Here is what I will admit to: it's possible I am naively optimistic. I see hyperbitcoinization not just as incredibly likely, but the best possible outcome by a long shot, which makes me biased.