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Yeah, I try 😆 The trick to avoiding temptation of “expert on X since Tuesday” aka sudden Dunning-Kruger false confidence is to put in and look for “proof of attention” being paid to LIVE events and new info. Your priors are only as good as the live data they help make sense of.
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One way to know if someone is work listening to, whether or not you agree, is whether they do like @vgr does below - not act like an expert when they're not. twitter.com/vgr/status/124

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2 immediate bozobits: a) uncritically boosting every trending bit of new information b) pure derp, where clearly no new information sinks in, everything just bounces off reiterated priors Too many people confuse vindication of resentments for situation awareness.
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Just because events vaguely rhyme with your beliefs or vaguely harmonize with your prognostications doesn’t mean you saw things coming or have made sense of what’s going on.
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