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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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      Biggest thing I’ve learned in the last 2 months: the basic currency of civilized life is time in a crisis, and it is *very* expensive Years of foresight work buy you days to weeks at most in a crisis Millions/billions of preparedness dollars buy you months at most ...

      10 replies 92 retweets 425 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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      And all it takes is one fool in the wrong place at the wrong time to entirely waste all the time bought.

      1 reply 4 retweets 79 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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      On the flip side “there are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen”... so a week bought for crisis time and defended well against fools is worth a decade. So if you weigh the value of time with exponential correctness, the effort/reward is worth it

      1 reply 8 retweets 104 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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      This has also given me a very fresh appreciation of the OODA loop.irs not billions of dollars, it’s not N95 masks. It’s time. Tempo tempo tempo. Every decision you make a day or week earlier than others gains you OODA time.

      4 replies 14 retweets 134 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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      That grim joke about the lion/bear works with the virus. For many things you don’t have to outrun the virus, you just have to outrun the other guy. Hate it or grimly exist in it, the ops reality everywhere is acquiring this dynamic.

      2 replies 4 retweets 43 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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      One lesson I always keep in mind us how in WW2 towards the end, when Nazi defeat was assured, the race to Berlin was mostly about setting up an advantageous opening position for Cold War. Time again. Those last few weeks of “allies” competing for a slice of Germany shaped decades

      2 replies 4 retweets 95 likes
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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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      You should be prepared for this. When the tide finally turns globally, and it’s clear the virus can be beaten (treatment, vaccine, whatever), *then* the real ugliness will start as parties race to establish positions for the post-Corona world.

      5 replies 28 retweets 159 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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      Another way to appreciate this is just how screwed you’d get if a second crisis hits while a first is unfolding. Could California handle an earthquake now? Could you personally handle say an identity theft episode with all customer service logjammed? That’s a time crisis.

      2 replies 3 retweets 72 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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      Our normal use of time in a functioning society assumes a lot of other processes operating nominally, with ordinary wait times etc. A “normal accident” is 2 strikes and you’re out. 3 and you’re dead. If the virus were a human adversary it would try to actively open up 2nd fronts

      9:31 PM - 3 Apr 2020
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      2 replies 0 retweets 50 likes
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        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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          So a lot of preparedness culture that we instinctively understand is about tightening 2nd-crisis loops and reeling them in to protect them. Hence stockpiles, cash reserves wind-up/liquidation of assets. You’re protecting what little time you have against leaks.

          1 reply 2 retweets 43 likes
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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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          I’m pretty slow-moving at most times, but I do try to practice what I preach a little in crisis situations, by accelerating decisions, exercising options early, paying a premium for time etc. It’s very stressful for me, and not my natural mode. My normal mode is daydreaming.

          1 reply 0 retweets 77 likes
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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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          I spend a lot of time improving my understanding of this stuff because I actually hate being in situations where I have to act in such intensity modes. I’m not an adrenaline junkie. I’m the opposite, whatever that is. The better I understand it, the less time I have to be in it.

          1 reply 2 retweets 61 likes
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        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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          I don’t get high intensity always-at-110% people 🤔 I hate it when I have to spike/surge past 70% intensity. even for a day or two. My ideal intensity is 50%. Half-dead is a very pleasant state of being.

          7 replies 6 retweets 98 likes
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        6. End of conversation

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