China wildly misreporting its numbers is more than dumb national face-saving “stability” seeking bullshit. It means everybody else is badly miscalibrated on everything.
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I don’t get it! It seems like everything has played out about how we expected based on the Chinese numbers.
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As you expected maybe. I think most leaders under-reacted in time and effort based on Chinese numbers seeming low.
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Leaders definitely underreacted, but I don’t think it’s because they believed the Chinese cfr and doubling time.
Maybe I don’t understand what you are saying?
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Everybody always thinks China fudges numbers to look good, but it matters what the real numbers are. If 20-40k deaths (which seems likely) are the real picture and had been shared we’d have seen a much more drastic response I think
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Genetic data supports the official Chinese numbers, dunno how highly you think that should be weighted but I take that seriously.
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I don’t feel competent to judge a lot of the noisy ground data so am relying on narrative skepticism, incentives, org culture history etc. Ben Hunt’s approach, I think party operatives were under a lot of pressure to make the numbers tell a certain story. Real story out in 2040.

