there was basically no treatment or cure available for the spanish flu... they only tried to alleviate symptoms. aspirin for fever https://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatters/2018/05/1918-flu/ …
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they did have oxygen and epinephrine though (how does that help pneumonia?)pic.twitter.com/JvstWsIlMN
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the standard stat going around is 80% out of hospital ("mild"), 20% in hospital, 5 % ICU, 2% dead. So somewhere between 5-20% seems likely (working under the assumption that the hospital only helps, which is shaky given nosocomial infections etc)
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so my theory is that with apples to apples comparison, this is actually much worse than the spanish flu
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Worth noting that our modern society has a lot more people who are obese or heart-related comorbidities.
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Saw this earlier (not fact checked thoroughly) https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1244068453515960326?s=19 …, most people put on vents die eventually (86% and 66% in these studies) so if you ballpark that all in hospital but not on a vent would survive anyway, then it would look like we're not even halving deaths
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I admit the assumption that no-one not on a ventilator would die is doing a lot of work here
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the only available 'therapy' for the most severe cases is intubation (or if available, ECMO). 50% of these patients still die. So, VERY crude/naive = 2x. It is less clear how many non severe, but critical patients (who are only on oxygen) would die without access to oxy.
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that said, pre-ICU oxygen was the fresh air treatment, see below... I'm not 100% convinced that this is MUCH worse than getting nasal oxygen in a hospital room...
#notadoctor, just an informed hypochondriac.https://twitter.com/fabianstelzer/status/1234090422030553088 …
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Looking at the difference in deaths each month compared to average of previous few years in countries without robust health systems (Eg Jordan, Ecuador) might provide a way to calculate estimate
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