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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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    anyone have a sense of what the fatality rate for covid19 would be *without* modern medical capabilities? the comparisons to spanish flu seem harder to make since that pre-dated ventilators and antibiotics (both dating to 1928) for eg

    1:56 PM - 3 Apr 2020
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    6 replies 1 retweet 41 likes
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      2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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        there was basically no treatment or cure available for the spanish flu... they only tried to alleviate symptoms. aspirin for fever https://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatters/2018/05/1918-flu/ …

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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        they did have oxygen and epinephrine though (how does that help pneumonia?)pic.twitter.com/JvstWsIlMN

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      2. Adam Strandberg‏ @The_Lagrangian Apr 3
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        Replying to @vgr

        the standard stat going around is 80% out of hospital ("mild"), 20% in hospital, 5 % ICU, 2% dead. So somewhere between 5-20% seems likely (working under the assumption that the hospital only helps, which is shaky given nosocomial infections etc)

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Apr 3
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        Replying to @The_Lagrangian

        so my theory is that with apples to apples comparison, this is actually much worse than the spanish flu

        3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      2. Fabian Harmik Stelzer‏ @fabianstelzer Apr 3
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        Replying to @vgr

        the only available 'therapy' for the most severe cases is intubation (or if available, ECMO). 50% of these patients still die. So, VERY crude/naive = 2x. It is less clear how many non severe, but critical patients (who are only on oxygen) would die without access to oxy.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Fabian Harmik Stelzer‏ @fabianstelzer Apr 3
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        Replying to @fabianstelzer @vgr

        Fabian Harmik Stelzer Retweeted Fabian Harmik Stelzer

        that said, pre-ICU oxygen was the fresh air treatment, see below... I'm not 100% convinced that this is MUCH worse than getting nasal oxygen in a hospital room...#notadoctor, just an informed hypochondriac.https://twitter.com/fabianstelzer/status/1234090422030553088 …

        Fabian Harmik Stelzer added,

        Fabian Harmik Stelzer @fabianstelzer
        10%-20% (!) of #COVID19 cases require ICU level care. This means we will run out of available beds and respirators in the next few weeks, throwing us back to pre-ICU medicine. How did they deal with this 100 years ago? Interesting answer is: *Fresh Air*: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4504358/ … pic.twitter.com/mjFrVlwWv8
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      1. elliot‏ @elmkast Apr 3
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        Replying to @vgr

        Worth noting that our modern society has a lot more people who are obese or heart-related comorbidities.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Maynard Handley‏ @handleym99 Apr 3
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        This is unclear. In part bcs "overweight" has become a politocultural term not a medical term. Look at https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241523151.html … which sounds bad " 64 percent of coronavirus patients in intensive care units in the United Kingdom were overweight" except, oh, 60% of UK overweight.

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      2. Maynard Handley‏ @handleym99 Apr 3
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        If 60 in 100 are overweight and 60 in 100 land in the ICU, the main conclusion is that one has nothing to do with the other! If overweight were a big factor then much higher than 60 out of 100 in the ICU would be overweight...

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Maynard Handley‏ @handleym99 Apr 3
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        Replying to @handleym99 @vgr

        I'm not saying BMI/diabetes etc are irrelevant. I have no idea. I'm simply saying that what I've seen so far on the subject is patently idiotic, and unconvincing. I look forward to eventually reading an analysis that's not idiotic.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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