I think I’m failing to understand something basic. What exactly is the endgame with this social distancing strategy?
Doesn’t flattening the curve just mean moving the spike to later when you try to ease the mitigation measures?
The responses make me think far few people have looked at the y-axis of the flattening graphs. We’re not talking turning 2x into 0.95x capacity. We’re talking something like 10x to 3x or so. The overwhelming of hospitals cannot be avoided. At best fewer people die waiting.
If the time is not used for cranking out both ventilators and people trained to use them, and developing treatments (not vaccines), we’re just moving spikes around. Ventilators alone is closer to WW1 attrition/trench warfare. We’re pinned down. WW2 maneuver warfare needs drugs.
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Timeline for that is 18 months. The hope for summer slowing this thing seems misplaced. Which means 18 months of death and destruction = world will be devastated by the time vaccines arrive.