My favorite blog on this ishttps://covid19-insights.squarespace.com/blog/covid19-insights-7 …
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It’s not rocket science… flatten curve to buy hospitals time to churn patients through the door. Patients come and go instead of pilling up and fighting for beds and dying.
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But that isn’t a strategy, just a tactic to buy time. What’s the actual end goal?
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They dont know what to do so they're doing something. The cat will be out of the bag once they open things up for econ reasons and we just deal with the fatalities.
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If we don't flatten the curve, the death toll will include people who might have been saved if only we had the hospital capacity. Flatten it and we have spread out the infections AND get to build more capacity.
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Buy time to up mask production for everyone which then buys time for the vaccine.
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also buying time to ramp up testing capacity making the Korea method feasible through: 1. mask abundance 2. rapid test & trace possible 3. positive antibody -> get out of jail free card
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The actual goal is to get to one of two end states 12-18 months from now: a vaccine or herd immunity, while keeping the curve flat enough so that as few die as possible due to scarcity of medical resources.
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One interesting theory is that *if* HCQ proves to work at keeping infections from turning severe, then intentional infections of healthy people at lowest feasible viral loads might help accelerate herd immunity. Infect -> HCQ -> quarantine -> monitor. Lots of ifs though.
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