Buy time to up mask production for everyone which then buys time for the vaccine.
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also buying time to ramp up testing capacity making the Korea method feasible through: 1. mask abundance 2. rapid test & trace possible 3. positive antibody -> get out of jail free card
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This is NOT a place for high-precision quantitative policy making. Models can be very off, system is locally unstable, and feedback loop has a big delay. We should err on the side of overreacting to save lives & protect scarce resources (healthcare) while figuring out what to do
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My favorite blog on this ishttps://covid19-insights.squarespace.com/blog/covid19-insights-7 …
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Goal is avoid overburdening ICU resources at the same time & having many more total deaths.
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They dont know what to do so they're doing something. The cat will be out of the bag once they open things up for econ reasons and we just deal with the fatalities.
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The actual goal is to get to one of two end states 12-18 months from now: a vaccine or herd immunity, while keeping the curve flat enough so that as few die as possible due to scarcity of medical resources.
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We seem to still be at the hope and pray part of the planning process
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@Noahpinion and@ScottGottliebMD have both laid out plans 1. Allow time for medical community to ramp potential treatments and learn more about the virus 2. Allow time for medical community to ramp capacity 3. Create mass testing infrastructure and implement Test and Trace - 2 more replies
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