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New conclusion. Nobody else understands it either. There’s a few vague theories in the air but the numbers don’t seem to really add up for any of them.
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I think I’m failing to understand something basic. What exactly is the endgame with this social distancing strategy? Doesn’t flattening the curve just mean moving the spike to later when you try to ease the mitigation measures?
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It’s not rocket science… flatten curve to buy hospitals time to churn patients through the door. Patients come and go instead of pilling up and fighting for beds and dying.
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Concur.
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It’s Okay To Be Uncertain What’s Happening And Where This Is All Going "If you’re seeing a mountain of disparate and conflicting information about which you can’t form a single unified narrative right now, that’s okay. That’s what we’re all seeing." medium.com/@caityjohnston
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If we don't flatten the curve, the death toll will include people who might have been saved if only we had the hospital capacity. Flatten it and we have spread out the infections AND get to build more capacity.
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One interesting theory is that *if* HCQ proves to work at keeping infections from turning severe, then intentional infections of healthy people at lowest feasible viral loads might help accelerate herd immunity. Infect -> HCQ -> quarantine -> monitor. Lots of ifs though.
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The goal is explicitly buying additional hospital surge capacity while testing capability is ramped up and track and trace can be done while there are fewer connections being established.