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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

This is my conversational account. For my work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 30
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      The US actually has the most ICU beds/100,000 by a wide margin. Why are Turkey and Lebanon at 2 and 3? Wonder 9f definitions of ICUs are different.pic.twitter.com/ycZwywoD80

      7 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 30
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      This table paints a weird picture. A 7x overwhelming of ICU beds in India would just saturate the US. This thing is going to hit the developing world brutally. What’s the raw mortality rate (ie with no access to healthcare)?

      4 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 30
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      Annually about 57m people die, or about 0.76%. If the total fatalities of Covid19 end up around 1% (possible given weak infrastructure in developing world), and assuming significant overlap with people who might have died anyway, this graph could see a spike to 100m.pic.twitter.com/vOWCAtutvj

      2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 30
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      The developing world has a few things going for it: younger population, warmer climate (which may or may not help), and lower rate of internal population movements. Also generally earlier responses. But I’m not optimistic.

      7:44 PM - 30 Mar 2020
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      • Chris Fong edumurphy 🟠 Thuongvu zem _
      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
        1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 30
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          I’m going to bet around 0.5-1% marginal uptick for India when this eventually gets going. ~5m-10m. People are being way too rosy in their projections.

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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