The US actually has the most ICU beds/100,000 by a wide margin. Why are Turkey and Lebanon at 2 and 3? Wonder 9f definitions of ICUs are different.
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This table paints a weird picture. A 7x overwhelming of ICU beds in India would just saturate the US. This thing is going to hit the developing world brutally.
What’s the raw mortality rate (ie with no access to healthcare)?
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Annually about 57m people die, or about 0.76%. If the total fatalities of Covid19 end up around 1% (possible given weak infrastructure in developing world), and assuming significant overlap with people who might have died anyway, this graph could see a spike to 100m.
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The developing world has a few things going for it: younger population, warmer climate (which may or may not help), and lower rate of internal population movements. Also generally earlier responses. But I’m not optimistic.
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I’m going to bet around 0.5-1% marginal uptick for India when this eventually gets going. ~5m-10m. People are being way too rosy in their projections.
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Wait, if 0.76% of people die annually, that means either explosive population growth (no longer true) or that people live for more than 100 years?
With a stable population and an average lifespan of 79 years (as the US has), 1.26% of people would die annually.
I could be wrong.

