The US actually has the most ICU beds/100,000 by a wide margin. Why are Turkey and Lebanon at 2 and 3? Wonder 9f definitions of ICUs are different.
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Annually about 57m people die, or about 0.76%. If the total fatalities of Covid19 end up around 1% (possible given weak infrastructure in developing world), and assuming significant overlap with people who might have died anyway, this graph could see a spike to 100m.
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The developing world has a few things going for it: younger population, warmer climate (which may or may not help), and lower rate of internal population movements. Also generally earlier responses. But I’m not optimistic.
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I’m going to bet around 0.5-1% marginal uptick for India when this eventually gets going. ~5m-10m. People are being way too rosy in their projections.
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I'm sure the answer to that harrowing question is in the data somewhere but it's a question no one really wants to explicitly ask.
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Do you know of any articles discussing whether at this point is the lack of cases in west Africa is due-to lack of test kits available or another explanation (ie BCG being standard protocol on the vaccination regimen?)



