Antilock braking system type policy: oscillating between enforcement and relaxation
I suspect something like that will be the norm in a year. Equivalent of rain forecasts. “Stay in next 2 days; we need 48h of distancing”
Distancing forecasts. Red/yellow/green weather reports.
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Do you truly think that such measures will be enforced despite more measured medical evidence as to the danger of the virus?
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Until a vaccine or treatment is developed, or herd immunity is proven to last long, yes. Outbreaks can keep happening, causing surges.
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Ioannidis got the reasoning completely BACKWARD.
I mean reallllllly backward.
In the real world, one must REDUCE RISK in the absence of reliable data, via the MOST ROBUST (model resistant) method.
That's the message of the INCERTO.
statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f
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Seems to me Taleb is misrepresenting what he's actually saying though. Which wouldn't come as a surprise, to be honest.
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He’s not the only one. Google around and search twitter. Ioannidis has been almost universally criticized by a variety of people on a variety of fronts, a lot of whom I take more seriously than Taleb. If you want to take your cues from him you’re in the minority.


