Conversation

Secular shifts: Maskchic Fat households Dedensification 2x WHM 0.5x business travel Virus-limited economics Last-mile automation Suburban dark kitchens Dumbwaiters Healthcare deregulation Premium mediocre —> disaster hedonism Domestic cozy —> hardcozy trad Deconsumerization
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Under-the-API service economy Crypto-mobile zero-trust public health Greenzoned underground social networks Citystatification Deathstar superpowernomics Cambrian explosion of pseudo speciation Rewilding of median human 30-50% depopulation by 2100 Sharp labor shortage after 2025
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Hero’s journey fiction sharp decline Carrier bag fiction sharp rise Women run green zones Economies of scale only for commodities and bare metal services Mass marketing dies Mass media dies Nation-state politics largely ceremonial Olympics never recover former glory VR explodes
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Grey man prepperdom thrives Mall ninjas get laughed out of town Gun culture spikes briefly then terminal decline DIY skills skyrockets Blue collar medium-tech innovation skyrockets Exotic high-tech = new crown jewels of tech platform Tech platform corps become largest entities
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Aesthetics go domestic Public spaces go mass utilitarian War on homelessness and slums for wrong reasons Home owners vs renters = new core battle line Global work barriers lowered as health-screening kills travel China in the doghouse for a decade, tries hard to rehabilitate
Replying to
Large counter-revolutionary virus-wave of regime changes Definancialization of critical assets via quasi-nationalization Shareholder value maximization deinstitutionalized Silicon Valley declines Commercial real estate repurposed for last-mile light industry Pollution plummets
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Animation/CGI explodes Live action sharp decline Hollywood and clones decline Rick & Morty, South Park declared essential services All bloggers get mansions Increase in indoor/balcony gardening Social distancing norms go permanent Factory farming declines DIY plant-based protein
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Exotic and complex cuisines decline High-peasant legible cuisines gain Cooked veggies over raw/salads Broths, hot water drinking Body-as-temple OCDism increase Street food declines Starbucks declines Private membership clubs grow Secret society stuff deceremonialized to banality
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POTUS office loses power and stature permanently Governorships and mayorships = apex political ambition Healthcare bifurcates into rich/poor systems - rich system wellness/longevity focused - poor system pandemic containment focused Capital moves to material assets and tech
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Financial capital loses power as coordination mechanisms Non-financial transaction economy grows Power becomes much more valuable than money Concierge medicine becomes core of high-end innovation Rent-over-own economy grows in green zone commune More dogs, fewer cats More boats
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End of large, dense mega conferences Large events like Burning Man enter slow decline into irrelevance Large-scale concerts decline Small live music events grow Airlines consolidate and many get nationalized Short-distance air travel declines Road travel resurgence More trains
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90 (I think): sugar consumption up 91: Epigenetically scarred generation A (after Z) 92: fascism goes domestic cozy 93: Crypto valuations stabilize, linked to fiat economy 94: International agencies shrink in scope, but deepen capability 95: Europe renaissance after 2030
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96: Interest in serious space exploration goes up 97: Deepened interest in instrument-level science 98: IQ loses status 99: Mediocratization accelerates 100: Universities trade neoliberal glamor for dark age deep adaptation stewardship
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