Secular shifts: Maskchic Fat households Dedensification 2x WHM 0.5x business travel Virus-limited economics Last-mile automation Suburban dark kitchens Dumbwaiters Healthcare deregulation Premium mediocre —> disaster hedonism Domestic cozy —> hardcozy trad Deconsumerization
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Aesthetics go domestic Public spaces go mass utilitarian War on homelessness and slums for wrong reasons Home owners vs renters = new core battle line Global work barriers lowered as health-screening kills travel China in the doghouse for a decade, tries hard to rehabilitate
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Large counter-revolutionary virus-wave of regime changes Definancialization of critical assets via quasi-nationalization Shareholder value maximization deinstitutionalized Silicon Valley declines Commercial real estate repurposed for last-mile light industry Pollution plummets
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Animation/CGI explodes Live action sharp decline Hollywood and clones decline Rick & Morty, South Park declared essential services All bloggers get mansions Increase in indoor/balcony gardening Social distancing norms go permanent Factory farming declines DIY plant-based protein
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Exotic and complex cuisines decline High-peasant legible cuisines gain Cooked veggies over raw/salads Broths, hot water drinking Body-as-temple OCDism increase Street food declines Starbucks declines Private membership clubs grow Secret society stuff deceremonialized to banality
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POTUS office loses power and stature permanently Governorships and mayorships = apex political ambition Healthcare bifurcates into rich/poor systems - rich system wellness/longevity focused - poor system pandemic containment focused Capital moves to material assets and tech
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Financial capital loses power as coordination mechanisms Non-financial transaction economy grows Power becomes much more valuable than money Concierge medicine becomes core of high-end innovation Rent-over-own economy grows in green zone commune More dogs, fewer cats More boats
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End of large, dense mega conferences Large events like Burning Man enter slow decline into irrelevance Large-scale concerts decline Small live music events grow Airlines consolidate and many get nationalized Short-distance air travel declines Road travel resurgence More trains
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90 (I think): sugar consumption up 91: Epigenetically scarred generation A (after Z) 92: fascism goes domestic cozy 93: Crypto valuations stabilize, linked to fiat economy 94: International agencies shrink in scope, but deepen capability 95: Europe renaissance after 2030
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96: Interest in serious space exploration goes up 97: Deepened interest in instrument-level science 98: IQ loses status 99: Mediocratization accelerates 100: Universities trade neoliberal glamor for dark age deep adaptation stewardship
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End of conversation
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Digital native media (streaming (both Netflix and Twitch modes), games, esports) takes mass consumption from trad entertainment. Domestic cozy compatible consumption (particularly in modes that are good for expanded households like board games) squeezes it from the other side.
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