I’m guessing 10 more weeks before we see the first signs of economy reboot. This is going to get really brutal. I’m not seeing any historical comparable for what we’re headed for. Not WW2, not the Great Depression, not the Spanish Flu. This is a totally sui generis cataclysm.
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Replying to @vgr
Disagree - this is a very large scale drop, but if handled reasonably, as the Fed is trying to do, this is not necessarily a multi-year / decade long episode like the great depression.
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Replying to @davidmanheim
I don’t expect it to be a decade either, but I expect it to be more traumatic in less time
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Replying to @vgr
I agree it will be more traumatic, but not for that reason. The recovery will pale in comparison to the realization we're all vulnerable. Most people in America will lose someone they know, or at least recognize. Many more will be close to someone who was hospitalized.
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Replying to @davidmanheim
I disagree with that. People fall ill and die all the time, and only really comfortable people need reminders of vulnerability. Overall fatality rate will likely end up under 1% once we count right. But the economic shock is going to be pretty unique.
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Replying to @vgr
I agree it's unlikely to be over 1% of the population. But I think people will view deaths from Corona more like they viewed deaths from 9/11. There is a specific ongoing threat of infectious disease that we didn't fight well enough, and it is a particular tragedy.
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Replying to @davidmanheim
Again the “we”... I for example *didn’t* view 9/11 that way, and like half the country, was against half the policy response (wars in Afghanistan and Iraq) and was skeptical of the other half (homeland security theater and curtailment of civil liberties).
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Replying to @vgr @davidmanheim
Certain outcome equilibrium conditions will emerge from this and some subset of us will be happy with it. Doesn’t mean it will be a consensus “right” outcome according to everybody. It’ll just be another shitty equilibrium to most that they are powerless to resist.
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Replying to @vgr
And yes, we'll end up in another inadequate equilibrium - but it will be far closer to nearly everyone's goals than the status during the shutdown.
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I think you might be conflating numerical majorities and power-weighted majority... you're an institutionalist and perhaps haven't had (or maybe forgotten) what it's like to be outside the protective force field of core institutions
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Replying to @vgr
I don't think so, but I'll agree that I'm likely biased by my viewpoint, which may be misleading me in that it seems to have led me to fail to predict at least the most recent failure of institutions, despite ample warning.
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