I’m guessing 10 more weeks before we see the first signs of economy reboot. This is going to get really brutal. I’m not seeing any historical comparable for what we’re headed for. Not WW2, not the Great Depression, not the Spanish Flu. This is a totally sui generis cataclysm.
-
Show this thread
-
Replying to @vgr
Disagree - this is a very large scale drop, but if handled reasonably, as the Fed is trying to do, this is not necessarily a multi-year / decade long episode like the great depression.
3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim @vgr
Daniel SocialDistanceMVP McNichol Retweeted Daniel SocialDistanceMVP McNichol
I can't fathom how we expect to "pause" & "play" the complex dynamic system of the global economy When we hit play again, how much will still be there? How much fear will drag on it? How many death spirals? Like trying to pause a circulatory systemhttps://twitter.com/dnlmc/status/1243965921640800259?s=19 …
Daniel SocialDistanceMVP McNichol added,
Daniel SocialDistanceMVP McNichol @dnlmcthis is obviously right but i fully can't comprehend how we might get back to anything resembling the pre-rona economy in even the next year or 2. U can't "pause" & "play" complex dynamic systems (e.g. global economies). The chain reactions & feedback loops are unfathomable. https://twitter.com/DinaPomeranz/status/1243915031936368640 …Show this thread2 replies 1 retweet 0 likes -
It's unfathomably complex, and it's won't be smooth. So it's a good thing that there's an entire global economy to figure out how to recover - and once we get started on recovery, it's a process where incentives are pretty well aligned with our goal.
2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim @dnlmc
Misaligned incentives are how we got here, there is no consensus “our goal”, and the new incentives in play are just as misaligned with the divergent goals of many groups. Chances are, we’ll learn nothing, and re-establish a fragile ghost of status quo ante that will fail again
2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes -
If I were God Emperor there would be a mandatory Perverse Incentives course from preschool on up
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
All incentives are perverse to somebody and fail in predictable ways which David is actually the expert on. Incentives are a fundamentally flawed but necessary instrument that can only safely be used with other types of instruments that check and balance those flaws.
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Your joke actually captures that in a way you may perhaps have intended. A “god emperor” personifies an egregore and a sense of belonging to an egregore is one way to mitigate the flaws of explicit incentives —- like cheating to get an A in Preschool Perverse Incentives
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
This seems Zizekian... under a King your spirit is free to rebel and hate the King for what he is or represents... but in democracy/modernity/expert oligarchy we reverse-project the shame of the King's bad decisions on ourselves. Fuck the King more like Fuck Me
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Sure hating the king is also a mechanism
... if I had one, I’d help my kid game the incentives class because I dislike kings and I dislike incentive-based system design about equally
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.