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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

This is my conversational account. For my work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 28
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      I’m guessing 10 more weeks before we see the first signs of economy reboot. This is going to get really brutal. I’m not seeing any historical comparable for what we’re headed for. Not WW2, not the Great Depression, not the Spanish Flu. This is a totally sui generis cataclysm.

      32 replies 95 retweets 471 likes
      Show this thread
    2. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Mar 29
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      Replying to @vgr

      Disagree - this is a very large scale drop, but if handled reasonably, as the Fed is trying to do, this is not necessarily a multi-year / decade long episode like the great depression.

      3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
    3. Daniel SocialDistanceMVP McNichol‏ @dnlmc Mar 29
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      Replying to @davidmanheim @vgr

      Daniel SocialDistanceMVP McNichol Retweeted Daniel SocialDistanceMVP McNichol

      I can't fathom how we expect to "pause" & "play" the complex dynamic system of the global economy When we hit play again, how much will still be there? How much fear will drag on it? How many death spirals? Like trying to pause a circulatory systemhttps://twitter.com/dnlmc/status/1243965921640800259?s=19 …

      Daniel SocialDistanceMVP McNichol added,

      Daniel SocialDistanceMVP McNichol @dnlmc
      this is obviously right but i fully can't comprehend how we might get back to anything resembling the pre-rona economy in even the next year or 2. U can't "pause" & "play" complex dynamic systems (e.g. global economies). The chain reactions & feedback loops are unfathomable. https://twitter.com/DinaPomeranz/status/1243915031936368640 …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
    4. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Mar 29
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      Replying to @dnlmc @vgr

      It's unfathomably complex, and it's won't be smooth. So it's a good thing that there's an entire global economy to figure out how to recover - and once we get started on recovery, it's a process where incentives are pretty well aligned with our goal.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 29
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      Replying to @davidmanheim @dnlmc

      Misaligned incentives are how we got here, there is no consensus “our goal”, and the new incentives in play are just as misaligned with the divergent goals of many groups. Chances are, we’ll learn nothing, and re-establish a fragile ghost of status quo ante that will fail again

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. It Arises‏ @IArises Mar 29
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      Replying to @vgr @davidmanheim @dnlmc

      If I were God Emperor there would be a mandatory Perverse Incentives course from preschool on up

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 29
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      Replying to @IArises @davidmanheim @dnlmc

      All incentives are perverse to somebody and fail in predictable ways which David is actually the expert on. Incentives are a fundamentally flawed but necessary instrument that can only safely be used with other types of instruments that check and balance those flaws.

      9:47 AM - 29 Mar 2020
      • 1 Like
      • David Manheim
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Mike Elias  💡 📈‏ @harmonylion1 Mar 29
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          Replying to @vgr @IArises and

          I think this is only true for centralized incentives (ie those with preferential outcomes)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 29
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          Replying to @harmonylion1 @IArises and

          So.... a decentralized world is your... centralized preference? 🤣

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. 1 more reply
        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 29
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          Replying to @vgr @IArises and

          Your joke actually captures that in a way you may perhaps have intended. A “god emperor” personifies an egregore and a sense of belonging to an egregore is one way to mitigate the flaws of explicit incentives —- like cheating to get an A in Preschool Perverse Incentives

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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