I’m guessing 10 more weeks before we see the first signs of economy reboot. This is going to get really brutal. I’m not seeing any historical comparable for what we’re headed for. Not WW2, not the Great Depression, not the Spanish Flu. This is a totally sui generis cataclysm.
-
Show this thread
-
The perfect storm is the combination of an extremely complex and integrated energy-intensive global society and a pandemic materially blacking out random large swathes of it. Wall Street people are still thinking of this in “market crash” terms. It’s something much worse.
4 replies 16 retweets 131 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @vgr
Mostly agree, but why do you say “energy-intensive”? Energy (in the physical sense) seems fairly unrelated to this crisis.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @daveslutzkin
Look at the pollution maps in virus hit areas. Great for health, not a great sign for the economy. And there's a reason why Saudi Arabia crashed oil prices now. Market scramble in a collapsed demand economy. Low-energy economies tend to be simpler and more decentralized.
1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
Energy per capita is a good proxy for "complexity" and is in a way the basis for fiat money economics. All dollars are petrodollars to zeroth order.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.