Conversation

I’m guessing 10 more weeks before we see the first signs of economy reboot. This is going to get really brutal. I’m not seeing any historical comparable for what we’re headed for. Not WW2, not the Great Depression, not the Spanish Flu. This is a totally sui generis cataclysm.
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The perfect storm is the combination of an extremely complex and integrated energy-intensive global society and a pandemic materially blacking out random large swathes of it. Wall Street people are still thinking of this in “market crash” terms. It’s something much worse.
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Replying to
Look at the pollution maps in virus hit areas. Great for health, not a great sign for the economy. And there's a reason why Saudi Arabia crashed oil prices now. Market scramble in a collapsed demand economy. Low-energy economies tend to be simpler and more decentralized.
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