I’m guessing 10 more weeks before we see the first signs of economy reboot. This is going to get really brutal. I’m not seeing any historical comparable for what we’re headed for. Not WW2, not the Great Depression, not the Spanish Flu. This is a totally sui generis cataclysm.
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The perfect storm is the combination of an extremely complex and integrated energy-intensive global society and a pandemic materially blacking out random large swathes of it. Wall Street people are still thinking of this in “market crash” terms. It’s something much worse.
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In between writing stuff and shitposting on Twitter, one of the things I’m trying to do is sort of imagine a plausible economic recovery pathway. It’s like trying to predict recovery from a tsunami about to hit a town by crawling under sinks and checking state of plumbing.
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Edit: I *can* think of comparable but they all come from Tainter’s book Collapse, not from the continuous history we’re all by definition a part of it
I don’t think this is a collapse event but it’s definitely a crash event. Recovery isn’t restarting, it’s rebuilding anew.6 replies 6 retweets 79 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @vgr
Check out Thomas Homer Dixon's The Upside of Down (Spoiler: the "upside" is we're unlikey to be *completely* wiped out...)
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oh that's the thing about collapses/crashes... you don't need complete wipeout to begin with. Just a critical few percent failing in the right way.
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