I’m guessing 10 more weeks before we see the first signs of economy reboot. This is going to get really brutal. I’m not seeing any historical comparable for what we’re headed for. Not WW2, not the Great Depression, not the Spanish Flu. This is a totally sui generis cataclysm.
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One thing we can expect: prepare for a lot of social closing, as people move into larger households in suburbs/smaller cities to make ends meet. Financially distressed people simply moving out of expensive cities once evictions moratoriums end and credit cards start maxing out.
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I was initially trying a sort of war game approach to analyzing the recovery pathway but the war metaphor is mistaken, this is *more* complex than a war recovery. There aren’t even obvious things to rebuild like bombed-out buildings. Mostly just shattered lives.
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New thought is to maybe track this with sort of a recovery ooda loop focused mainly on rapidly identifying and imitating successful local recovery patterns. An integral (as in calculus) OODA loop that accumulates rebuild patterns. A pattern inventory. Bottom-up DIY Marshall plan.
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Here's my take on this - using your social vaccination idea from not that long ago. I see a good chance to "R-design" society and economy, more resilient and with less transmission risks.https://beamberlin.com/the-health-of-nations-economy-and-society-in-a-post-corona-world/ …
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I had a social vaccination idea? I can’t recall

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How about this. Poor countries can't hold a lockdown for long. It will be politically acceptable to open up here much sooner than there. Watch how a recovery happens here.
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The sudden horror when the illusion of nobody knowing what the hell will happen was destroyed.
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invest in post-traumatic stress disorder / post-traumatic growth for maximum stonks
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Can the money printer ever stop going brrr
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So what's the move? Get to that Next Big Thing ASAP?
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I don’t think this is a collapse event but it’s definitely a crash event. Recovery isn’t restarting, it’s rebuilding anew.